Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Saracens 10.02 9.68 0.30 Bath 8.12 5.55 2.60 Bristol 6.70 9.58 -2.90 Northampton Saints 5.17 7.50 -2.30 Leicester Tigers 3.20 3.27 -0.10 Sale Sharks 2.77 4.73 -2.00 Exeter Chiefs 1.06 1.23 -0.20 Harlequins -2.43 -2.73 0.30 Gloucester -5.95 -9.04 3.10 Newcastle Falcons -17.91 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 41 – 44 24.70 FALSE 2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 28 – 14 24.00 TRUE 3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 45 – 26 12.40 TRUE 4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 30 – 24 11.80 TRUE 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 15 – 20 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Northampton Saints 14.10 2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 05 Sale Sharks 15.20 3 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 06 Bath 7.90 4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 Leicester Tigers -14.60 5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 07 Saracens 15.50

 

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