NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 12.87 6.15 6.70 Panthers 9.30 14.73 -5.40 Roosters 6.65 3.08 3.60 Sharks 5.06 2.94 2.10 Cowboys 4.66 2.47 2.20 Sea Eagles 2.60 -0.48 3.10 Bulldogs -0.76 -13.35 12.60 Knights -1.10 1.84 -2.90 Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70 Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90 Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60 Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70 Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90 Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70 Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90 Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60 Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Panthers vs. Sharks Sep 28 26 – 6 2.10 TRUE 2 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 27 48 – 18 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Panthers vs. Storm Oct 06 Panthers 0.80

 

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