United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 12.78 12.09 0.70 Glasgow 11.26 9.39 1.90 Bulls 9.07 8.83 0.20 Lions 8.69 6.73 2.00 Munster 7.60 9.28 -1.70 Stormers 6.75 6.75 -0.00 Ulster 1.30 2.52 -1.20 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Edinburgh -0.13 0.09 -0.20 Connacht -0.59 -0.76 0.20 Sharks -2.99 -2.94 -0.00 Benetton -3.01 1.02 -4.00 Ospreys -3.13 -2.51 -0.60 Cardiff Rugby -3.87 -2.55 -1.30 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Scarlets -9.67 -10.65 1.00 Dragons -13.76 -15.41 1.60 Zebre -14.58 -16.17 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 36 – 52 -7.80 TRUE 2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 23 – 24 -4.30 TRUE 3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 55 – 21 11.20 TRUE 4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 47 – 21 11.10 TRUE 5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 5 – 35 -7.10 TRUE 6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 30 – 33 -5.90 TRUE 7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 23 – 0 14.30 TRUE 8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 5 – 36 -13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Oct 12 Glasgow 31.30 2 Benetton vs. Sharks Oct 13 Benetton 5.50 3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Oct 13 Cardiff Rugby 8.30 4 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 13 Stormers -1.40 5 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 13 Leinster 7.70 6 Ospreys vs. Bulls Oct 13 Bulls -6.70 7 Ulster vs. Connacht Oct 13 Ulster 4.40 8 Dragons vs. Lions Oct 13 Lions -16.90

 

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