Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 9.22 8.76 0.50 Bordeaux Begles 6.41 3.96 2.50 Toulon 5.41 5.32 0.10 Stade Rochelais 4.97 4.85 0.10 Racing 92 2.76 2.75 0.00 Castres Olympique 1.22 -0.09 1.30 Section Paloise 1.00 1.38 -0.40 Lyon 0.07 -0.18 0.20 Clermont -0.28 0.41 -0.70 Stade Francais -0.80 1.86 -2.70 Bayonne -0.88 -1.69 0.80 Montpellier -1.20 -0.96 -0.20 USA Perpignan -2.99 -0.66 -2.30 Vannes -9.19 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 12 37 – 7 -1.60 FALSE 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Oct 12 66 – 12 13.10 TRUE 3 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Oct 12 35 – 3 5.40 TRUE 4 Montpellier vs. Vannes Oct 12 26 – 24 15.60 TRUE 5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Oct 12 22 – 6 2.80 TRUE 6 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Oct 12 33 – 26 6.20 TRUE 7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 12 48 – 14 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Oct 20 Bayonne 2.90 2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 20 Castres Olympique 8.50 3 Clermont vs. Vannes Oct 20 Clermont 15.40 4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 20 Stade Toulousain -1.70 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 21 Stade Rochelais 5.10 6 Toulon vs. Montpellier Oct 20 Toulon 13.10 7 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Oct 20 USA Perpignan 3.40

 

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