Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

 

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 7.73 10.63 -2.90 Waikato 6.30 5.30 1.00 Bay of Plenty 6.18 3.52 2.70 Canterbury 5.91 6.01 -0.10 Taranaki 5.84 5.21 0.60 Tasman 3.81 2.17 1.60 North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30 Hawke’s Bay 1.51 6.09 -4.60 Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60 Counties Manukau -0.70 -5.22 4.50 Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70 Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10 Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30 Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Oct 11 29 – 14 10.30 TRUE 2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 12 19 – 17 9.50 TRUE 3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Oct 12 14 – 15 3.70 FALSE 4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 13 14 – 62 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 19 Bay of Plenty 3.30 2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 19 Wellington 4.40

 

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