United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 14.50 12.09 2.40 Glasgow 10.07 9.39 0.70 Bulls 7.25 8.83 -1.60 Lions 6.58 6.73 -0.10 Munster 6.01 9.28 -3.30 Stormers 5.53 6.75 -1.20 Edinburgh 2.71 0.09 2.60 Ulster 2.38 2.52 -0.10 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Benetton -1.00 1.02 -2.00 Connacht -1.68 -0.76 -0.90 Sharks -3.49 -2.94 -0.50 Ospreys -4.51 -2.51 -2.00 Cardiff Rugby -5.65 -2.55 -3.10 Scarlets -6.44 -10.65 4.20 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Dragons -13.25 -15.41 2.20 Zebre -13.29 -16.17 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Oct 19 23 – 2 -12.50 FALSE 2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 19 36 – 12 10.40 TRUE 3 Zebre vs. Lions Oct 19 9 – 10 -16.60 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 19 28 – 24 -10.20 FALSE 5 Stormers vs. Munster Oct 20 34 – 19 3.20 TRUE 6 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 20 27 – 8 12.40 TRUE 7 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 20 12 – 33 -11.60 TRUE 8 Dragons vs. Benetton Oct 20 21 – 31 -5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 26 Bulls -2.80 2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 26 Scarlets 12.40 3 Stormers vs. Glasgow Oct 27 Stormers 1.00 4 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Oct 27 Edinburgh -1.70 5 Sharks vs. Munster Oct 27 Munster -4.00 6 Leinster vs. Lions Oct 27 Leinster 13.40 7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Oct 27 Ulster -2.50 8 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 27 Connacht 17.10

 

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6 first appeared on Stats Chat.