Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Wellington 7.80 10.63 -2.80 Bay of Plenty 7.23 3.52 3.70 Waikato 6.23 5.30 0.90 Taranaki 5.84 5.21 0.60 Canterbury 4.86 6.01 -1.20 Tasman 3.81 2.17 1.60 North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30 Hawke’s Bay 1.51 6.09 -4.60 Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60 Counties Manukau -0.70 -5.22 4.50 Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70 Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10 Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30 Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 19 32 – 20 3.30 TRUE 2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 19 29 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 26 Wellington 3.60

 

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