Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 10.94 8.76 2.20 Bordeaux Begles 6.14 3.96 2.20 Stade Rochelais 4.69 4.85 -0.20 Toulon 4.10 5.32 -1.20 Racing 92 1.91 2.75 -0.80 Castres Olympique 1.39 -0.09 1.50 Section Paloise 0.65 1.38 -0.70 Bayonne 0.38 -1.69 2.10 Stade Francais -0.49 1.86 -2.40 Lyon -0.54 -0.18 -0.40 Montpellier -0.70 -0.96 0.30 Clermont -0.83 0.41 -1.20 USA Perpignan -2.79 -0.66 -2.10 Vannes -9.12 -10.00 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Oct 27 19 – 6 11.90 TRUE 2 Lyon vs. Bayonne Oct 27 38 – 49 6.90 FALSE 3 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 27 16 – 0 0.30 TRUE 4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 27 30 – 23 11.70 TRUE 5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Oct 27 36 – 6 6.00 TRUE 6 Vannes vs. Castres Olympique Oct 27 34 – 28 -3.90 FALSE 7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Oct 28 57 – 5 10.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 02 Stade Toulousain -3.80 2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Nov 02 Castres Olympique 7.90 3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 02 Bordeaux Begles -1.20 4 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Nov 02 Section Paloise 5.50 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Nov 02 Stade Rochelais 10.80 6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 02 Toulon 11.10 7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Nov 02 USA Perpignan 12.60

 

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