United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 15.79 12.09 3.70 Bulls 9.00 8.83 0.20 Glasgow 8.52 9.39 -0.90 Munster 4.82 9.28 -4.50 Stormers 3.99 6.75 -2.80 Lions 3.41 6.73 -3.30 Edinburgh 1.95 0.09 1.90 Ulster 1.49 2.52 -1.00 Sharks 1.40 -2.94 4.30 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Connacht -0.91 -0.76 -0.10 Ospreys -2.29 -2.51 0.20 Scarlets -3.54 -10.65 7.10 Benetton -4.69 1.02 -5.70 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Cardiff Rugby -7.46 -2.55 -4.90 Zebre -11.11 -16.17 5.10 Dragons -14.65 -15.41 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 09 32 – 33 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Feb 15 Edinburgh 18.60 2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 15 Leinster -12.60 3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 16 Lions 1.90 4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 16 Bulls 10.10 5 Benetton vs. Ulster Feb 16 Ulster -0.70 6 Munster vs. Scarlets Feb 16 Munster 13.90 7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 16 Connacht 12.00 8 Dragons vs. Glasgow Feb 17 Glasgow -17.70

 

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