Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 14.92 14.92 0.00 Chiefs 11.43 11.43 0.00 Hurricanes 10.97 10.97 -0.00 Crusaders 8.99 8.99 0.00 Brumbies 6.19 6.19 -0.00 Reds 1.35 1.35 0.00 Highlanders -2.50 -2.50 0.00 Waratahs -5.17 -5.17 0.00 Western Force -6.41 -6.41 0.00 Fijian Drua -7.98 -7.98 -0.00 Moana Pasifika -11.25 -11.25 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 14 Crusaders 1.50 2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Feb 14 Waratahs 1.30 3 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Feb 15 Brumbies -10.70 4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 15 Blues 7.00 5 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 15 Western Force 8.80

 

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