United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 14.73 12.09 2.60 Glasgow 9.33 9.39 -0.10 Bulls 7.59 8.83 -1.20 Munster 5.60 9.28 -3.70 Lions 3.97 6.73 -2.80 Stormers 3.44 6.75 -3.30 Sharks 2.81 -2.94 5.80 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Ulster 0.35 2.52 -2.20 Edinburgh 0.34 0.09 0.30 Ospreys -1.23 -2.51 1.30 Connacht -1.69 -0.76 -0.90 Benetton -3.55 1.02 -4.60 Scarlets -4.32 -10.65 6.30 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Cardiff Rugby -6.68 -2.55 -4.10 Zebre -9.49 -16.17 6.70 Dragons -15.46 -15.41 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Feb 15 17 – 22 18.60 FALSE 2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 15 19 – 22 -12.60 TRUE 3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 16 30 – 23 1.90 TRUE 4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 16 19 – 29 10.10 FALSE 5 Benetton vs. Ulster Feb 16 34 – 19 -0.70 FALSE 6 Munster vs. Scarlets Feb 16 29 – 8 13.90 TRUE 7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 16 24 – 19 12.00 TRUE 8 Dragons vs. Glasgow Feb 17 20 – 45 -17.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 23 Bulls 6.10

 

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