Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 10.89 8.76 2.10 Toulon 6.84 5.32 1.50 Bordeaux Begles 5.79 3.96 1.80 Montpellier 1.97 -0.96 2.90 Stade Rochelais 1.94 4.85 -2.90 Clermont 0.69 0.41 0.30 Lyon 0.59 -0.18 0.80 Bayonne 0.29 -1.69 2.00 Castres Olympique -0.04 -0.09 0.10 Racing 92 -0.11 2.75 -2.90 Section Paloise -0.56 1.38 -1.90 Stade Francais -1.52 1.86 -3.40 USA Perpignan -3.19 -0.66 -2.50 Vannes -7.85 -10.00 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 16 36 – 32 0.60 TRUE 2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 16 53 – 17 3.90 TRUE 3 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 16 30 – 38 2.40 FALSE 4 Racing 92 vs. Vannes Feb 16 25 – 30 15.90 FALSE 5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Feb 16 39 – 37 5.00 TRUE 6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Feb 16 20 – 20 5.00 FALSE 7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 17 18 – 35 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Feb 23 Castres Olympique 4.60 2 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Feb 23 Section Paloise 9.60 3 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Feb 23 Stade Rochelais 7.70 4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 23 Stade Toulousain 16.00 5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Feb 23 Toulon 14.30 6 Vannes vs. Montpellier Feb 23 Montpellier -2.30 7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 24 Bordeaux Begles 12.90

 

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