Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 14.21 14.92 -0.70 Chiefs 12.13 11.43 0.70 Hurricanes 10.52 10.97 -0.50 Crusaders 9.44 8.99 0.50 Brumbies 5.72 6.19 -0.50 Reds 1.35 1.35 0.00 Highlanders -2.48 -2.50 0.00 Waratahs -5.19 -5.17 -0.00 Western Force -6.77 -6.41 -0.40 Fijian Drua -7.51 -7.98 0.50 Moana Pasifika -10.89 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 14 33 – 25 1.50 TRUE 2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Feb 14 37 – 36 1.30 TRUE 3 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Feb 15 32 – 36 -10.70 TRUE 4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 15 14 – 25 7.00 FALSE 5 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 15 45 – 44 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 21 Chiefs 6.20 2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 21 Reds 16.20 3 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua Feb 22 Hurricanes 22.00 4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 Blues -13.20 5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 22 Brumbies 16.00

 

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