Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 13.68 14.92 -1.20 Chiefs 13.08 11.43 1.70 Hurricanes 9.54 10.97 -1.40 Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30 Brumbies 4.77 6.19 -1.40 Reds 1.60 1.35 0.30 Highlanders -1.95 -2.50 0.60 Waratahs -5.20 -5.17 -0.00 Western Force -6.03 -6.41 0.40 Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20 Moana Pasifika -10.87 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 29 – 31 -6.00 TRUE 2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 29 – 24 5.10 TRUE 3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 49 – 34 11.90 TRUE 4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 33 -0.10 TRUE 5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 24 – 28 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 07 Blues 12.90 2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs Mar 08 Chiefs -15.90 3 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 08 Hurricanes -16.90 4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 08 Waratahs 4.30 5 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 09 Crusaders 11.10

 

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