United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70 Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30 Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40 Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90 Lions 4.35 6.73 -2.40 Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50 Sharks 1.78 -2.94 4.70 Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50 Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10 Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90 Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20 Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60 Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50 Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 25 – 22 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 Lions -4.60 2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 Glasgow 9.20 3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 Sharks 16.90 4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 Benetton 0.30 5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 Leinster -0.80 6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 Ulster -9.20 7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 Ospreys 7.10 8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 Stormers -2.20

 

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