NRL Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately my predictions for the first round were incorrect because I had the Dolphins playing at home, when in fact the Rabbitohs were at home. The results below use the correct home ground and show the Rabbitohs as predicted winners rather than the Dolphins.

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00 Panthers 8.71 8.50 0.20 Roosters 5.66 7.44 -1.80 Sharks 4.89 5.10 -0.20 Sea Eagles 4.13 2.97 1.20 Cowboys 2.96 4.11 -1.20 Bulldogs 0.43 0.07 0.40 Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80 Knights -0.38 -0.05 -0.30 Dolphins -2.07 -1.96 -0.10 Raiders -2.59 -3.61 1.00 Warriors -2.69 -1.68 -1.00 Eels -3.99 -3.02 -1.00 Rabbitohs -4.23 -4.35 0.10 Dragons -4.90 -4.55 -0.30 Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00 Wests Tigers -10.64 -10.97 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 30 – 8 -1.90 FALSE 2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 28 – 22 3.40 TRUE 3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 14 – 50 12.30 FALSE 4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 8 – 10 -7.90 TRUE 5 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins Mar 07 16 – 14 0.60 TRUE 6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 20 – 28 -1.60 TRUE 7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 42 – 12 1.90 TRUE 8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 56 – 18 15.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 Knights 4.70 2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 Sea Eagles -3.30 3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Panthers 6.00 4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 Dragons 2.30 5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 Cowboys 1.10 6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 Raiders 0.40 7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Eels 9.60 8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 Bulldogs 8.90

 

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