AFL Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hawthorn Hawks 23.59 21.95 1.60 Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00 Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00 Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00 GWS Giants 11.68 9.08 2.60 Sydney Swans 10.97 12.60 -1.60 Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00 Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00 Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00 Collingwood 2.78 5.39 -2.60 Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00 St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00 Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00 Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00 Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00 Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00 West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00 North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 76 – 96 1.60 FALSE 2 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 104 – 52 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 Carlton Blues -36.00 2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 Hawthorn Hawks 33.70 3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 Geelong Cats 20.00 4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 Brisbane Lions -0.70 5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 Collingwood 6.20 6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 Western Bulldogs 55.30 7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 Adelaide Crows 12.80 8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 GWS Giants -0.90 9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 Gold Coast Suns -17.30

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.