Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 13.23 14.92 -1.70 Chiefs 12.20 11.43 0.80 Crusaders 9.39 8.99 0.40 Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70 Brumbies 5.49 6.19 -0.70 Reds 1.54 1.35 0.20 Highlanders -1.60 -2.50 0.90 Waratahs -4.92 -5.17 0.30 Fijian Drua -6.18 -7.98 1.80 Western Force -6.92 -6.41 -0.50 Moana Pasifika -9.93 -11.25 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 14 18 – 20 -7.00 TRUE 2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Mar 14 38 – 21 14.90 TRUE 3 Crusaders vs. Western Force Mar 15 55 – 33 20.00 TRUE 4 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 15 32 – 31 2.70 TRUE 5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 15 35 – 15 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 Chiefs -18.60 2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 Highlanders 0.90 3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 Blues 7.30 4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 Brumbies -6.90 5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 Western Force 2.80

 

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