NRL Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00 Panthers 8.12 8.50 -0.40 Roosters 6.25 7.44 -1.20 Sharks 5.94 5.10 0.80 Sea Eagles 3.13 2.97 0.20 Cowboys 1.91 4.11 -2.20 Bulldogs 0.81 0.07 0.70 Knights 0.10 -0.05 0.10 Broncos -0.53 -1.82 1.30 Warriors -1.70 -1.68 -0.00 Raiders -2.11 -3.61 1.50 Dolphins -2.55 -1.96 -0.60 Rabbitohs -3.97 -4.35 0.40 Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60 Eels -5.39 -3.02 -2.40 Titans -5.88 -5.50 -0.40 Wests Tigers -9.24 -10.97 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 26 – 12 4.70 TRUE 2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 36 – 16 -3.30 FALSE 3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 32 – 38 6.00 FALSE 4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 24 – 25 2.30 FALSE 5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 12 – 36 1.10 FALSE 6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 32 – 22 0.40 TRUE 7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 6 – 32 9.60 FALSE 8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 40 – 24 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 Storm 5.10 2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -4.40 3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 Broncos 0.60 4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 Sharks 12.90 5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 Dolphins 9.70 6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 Knights -3.00 7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 Bulldogs -3.20 8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 Sea Eagles 8.20

 

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