AFL Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hawthorn Hawks 26.00 21.95 4.00 Brisbane Lions 22.59 22.65 -0.10 Geelong Cats 18.82 15.04 3.80 Western Bulldogs 15.48 18.20 -2.70 Collingwood 11.79 5.39 6.40 GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70 Sydney Swans 7.23 12.60 -5.40 Adelaide Crows 6.04 2.69 3.30 Port Adelaide Power 2.61 7.63 -5.00 Fremantle Dockers 2.21 5.99 -3.80 Carlton Blues 1.73 5.01 -3.30 Melbourne Demons -0.94 -0.21 -0.70 Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40 St Kilda Saints -2.46 0.89 -3.30 Essendon Bombers -8.76 -10.15 1.40 Richmond Tigers -27.72 -31.00 3.30 North Melbourne -34.37 -37.08 2.70 West Coast Eagles -39.10 -34.67 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 82 – 69 -36.00 FALSE 2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 111 – 85 37.50 TRUE 3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 147 – 69 20.00 TRUE 4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 82 – 86 -4.50 TRUE 5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 136 – 45 10.10 TRUE 6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 113 – 97 55.30 TRUE 7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 135 – 72 12.80 TRUE 8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 74 – 77 3.10 FALSE 9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 49 – 136 -17.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 Hawthorn Hawks -24.30 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 Western Bulldogs 3.70 3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 Adelaide Crows -3.80 4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 Port Adelaide Power 41.30 5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 Geelong Cats -10.30 6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 Brisbane Lions 72.70 7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 Melbourne Demons -33.40 8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 Fremantle Dockers 6.00

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 3 first appeared on Stats Chat.