AFL Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hawthorn Hawks 25.49 21.95 3.50 Brisbane Lions 19.05 22.65 -3.60 Geelong Cats 17.47 15.04 2.40 Western Bulldogs 14.32 18.20 -3.90 Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60 Adelaide Crows 9.78 2.69 7.10 GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70 Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30 Port Adelaide Power 4.81 7.63 -2.80 Carlton Blues 2.24 5.01 -2.80 Fremantle Dockers 1.13 5.99 -4.90 St Kilda Saints -1.11 0.89 -2.00 Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40 Melbourne Demons -6.56 -0.21 -6.40 Essendon Bombers -12.50 -10.15 -2.40 North Melbourne -28.74 -37.08 8.30 Richmond Tigers -29.93 -31.00 1.10 West Coast Eagles -35.55 -34.67 -0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 60 – 80 -24.30 TRUE 2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 70 – 76 3.70 FALSE 3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 100 – 161 -3.80 TRUE 4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 140 – 68 41.30 TRUE 5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 98 – 91 -10.30 FALSE 6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 94 – 75 72.70 TRUE 7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 125 – 66 -33.40 FALSE 8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 65 – 68 6.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 Port Adelaide Power -6.30 2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 Western Bulldogs -12.10 3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 Brisbane Lions 5.60 4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 Melbourne Demons 6.40 5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 St Kilda Saints 28.80 6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 Hawthorn Hawks 28.10 7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 Adelaide Crows 49.50 8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 Fremantle Dockers -36.70 The post AFL Predictions for Week 4 first appeared on Stats Chat.