United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14
Stats Chat 2025-03-25
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 13.55 12.09 1.50 Bulls 7.64 8.83 -1.20 Glasgow 7.42 9.39 -2.00 Stormers 5.32 6.75 -1.40 Munster 5.08 9.28 -4.20 Lions 3.52 6.73 -3.20 Edinburgh 1.25 0.09 1.20 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Sharks 0.62 -2.94 3.60 Ospreys -0.46 -2.51 2.10 Ulster -1.13 2.52 -3.70 Connacht -1.17 -0.76 -0.40 Benetton -3.33 1.02 -4.40 Scarlets -4.51 -10.65 6.10 Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -2.55 -2.30 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -8.50 -16.17 7.70 Dragons -14.72 -15.41 0.70
Performance So Far
So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Mar 22 20 – 17 -4.60 FALSE 2 Glasgow vs. Munster Mar 22 28 – 25 9.20 TRUE 3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 22 35 – 34 16.90 TRUE 4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Mar 23 21 – 18 0.30 TRUE 5 Bulls vs. Leinster Mar 23 21 – 20 -0.80 FALSE 6 Dragons vs. Ulster Mar 23 30 – 34 -9.20 TRUE 7 Ospreys vs. Connacht Mar 23 43 – 40 7.10 TRUE 8 Scarlets vs. Stormers Mar 23 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Mar 29 Edinburgh 21.50 2 Ulster vs. Stormers Mar 29 Stormers -0.90 3 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70 4 Bulls vs. Zebre Mar 30 Bulls 21.60 5 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 Munster -3.70 6 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Mar 30 Ospreys -1.50 7 Sharks vs. Leinster Mar 30 Leinster -7.40 8 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 30 Benetton 7.00 9 Glasgow vs. Lions Mar 30 Glasgow 9.40The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14 first appeared on Stats Chat.