Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 11.82 8.76 3.10 Toulon 6.94 5.32 1.60 Bordeaux Begles 6.16 3.96 2.20 Montpellier 1.56 -0.96 2.50 Stade Rochelais 1.05 4.85 -3.80 Lyon 0.78 -0.18 1.00 Castres Olympique 0.53 -0.09 0.60 Clermont 0.34 0.41 -0.10 Section Paloise 0.31 1.38 -1.10 Bayonne 0.01 -1.69 1.70 Racing 92 -0.15 2.75 -2.90 Stade Francais -1.68 1.86 -3.50 USA Perpignan -4.08 -0.66 -3.40 Vannes -7.88 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 21 – 23 6.20 FALSE 2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 36 – 21 15.60 TRUE 3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 40 – 38 7.70 TRUE 4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 31 – 27 4.60 TRUE 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 12 – 12 7.90 FALSE 6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 40 – 19 16.20 TRUE 7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 32 – 24 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 Bayonne 5.30 2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 Toulon -0.10 3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 Clermont 5.20 4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 Montpellier 9.00 5 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 30 Racing 92 0.30 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 Stade Toulousain 16.30 7 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 Vannes 2.70

 

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