Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80 Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50 Crusaders 10.46 8.99 1.50 Hurricanes 8.24 10.97 -2.70 Brumbies 4.98 6.19 -1.20 Reds 2.02 1.35 0.70 Highlanders -2.08 -2.50 0.40 Waratahs -4.41 -5.17 0.80 Western Force -5.74 -6.41 0.70 Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60 Moana Pasifika -9.67 -11.25 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 21 35 – 50 -18.60 TRUE 2 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 22 23 – 29 0.90 FALSE 3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 22 19 – 42 7.30 FALSE 4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 28 – 23 -6.90 FALSE 5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua Mar 23 52 – 15 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 Hurricanes 16.70 2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 Brumbies 11.10 3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 Crusaders 23.60 4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 Reds 11.30

 

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