Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 13.68 5.55 8.10 Leicester Tigers 6.03 3.27 2.80 Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30 Sale Sharks 4.90 4.73 0.20 Harlequins 1.68 -2.73 4.40 Northampton Saints 1.54 7.50 -6.00 Gloucester 1.15 -9.04 10.20 Saracens -0.50 9.68 -10.20 Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40 Newcastle Falcons -20.91 -19.02 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 15 – 39 -18.10 TRUE 2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 52 – 38 14.00 TRUE 3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 0 – 33 10.80 FALSE 4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 12 – 23 8.20 FALSE 5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 42 – 26 19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 Bath 18.50 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 Exeter Chiefs 25.30 3 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 Gloucester 2.30 4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 30 Leicester Tigers 13.00 5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 30 Sale Sharks 9.90

 

The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13 first appeared on Stats Chat.