NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 10.33 9.29 1.00 Panthers 8.05 8.50 -0.50 Sharks 6.11 5.10 1.00 Roosters 5.65 7.44 -1.80 Sea Eagles 4.00 2.97 1.00 Cowboys 1.42 4.11 -2.70 Bulldogs 1.09 0.07 1.00 Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80 Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80 Warriors -1.10 -1.68 0.60 Raiders -2.98 -3.61 0.60 Dolphins -3.48 -1.96 -1.50 Rabbitohs -4.13 -4.35 0.20 Titans -4.90 -5.50 0.60 Dragons -5.17 -4.55 -0.60 Eels -5.67 -3.02 -2.70 Wests Tigers -8.30 -10.97 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 20 30 – 24 5.10 TRUE 2 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 21 14 – 6 -4.40 FALSE 3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 21 26 – 16 0.60 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 27 – 12 12.90 TRUE 5 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 18 – 30 9.70 FALSE 6 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 26 – 6 -3.00 FALSE 7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 23 8 – 16 -3.20 TRUE 8 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 23 40 – 12 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 Panthers -9.20 2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 Roosters 13.50 3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 Broncos -3.40 4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 Storm -12.50 5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 Cowboys 7.40 6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Sharks 8.00 7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 Sea Eagles 12.70 8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 Warriors -3.70

 

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