United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 13.06 12.09 1.00 Glasgow 9.54 9.39 0.10 Bulls 8.88 8.83 0.10 Munster 5.32 9.28 -4.00 Stormers 4.77 6.75 -2.00 Edinburgh 2.13 0.09 2.00 Lions 1.40 6.73 -5.30 Sharks 1.11 -2.94 4.10 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Ulster -0.58 2.52 -3.10 Connacht -1.42 -0.76 -0.70 Ospreys -1.72 -2.51 0.80 Scarlets -3.25 -10.65 7.40 Benetton -3.99 1.02 -5.00 Cardiff Rugby -4.21 -2.55 -1.70 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -9.74 -16.17 6.40 Dragons -15.60 -15.41 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Mar 29 38 – 5 21.50 TRUE 2 Ulster vs. Stormers Mar 29 38 – 34 -0.90 FALSE 3 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 24 – 30 -3.70 TRUE 4 Bulls vs. Zebre Mar 30 63 – 24 21.60 TRUE 5 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Mar 30 38 – 22 -1.50 FALSE 6 Sharks vs. Leinster Mar 30 7 – 10 -7.40 TRUE 7 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 30 20 – 19 7.00 TRUE 8 Glasgow vs. Lions Mar 30 42 – 0 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Apr 19 Edinburgh 6.50 2 Lions vs. Benetton Apr 19 Lions 10.90 3 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 Ospreys 5.00 4 Stormers vs. Connacht Apr 20 Stormers 11.70 5 Munster vs. Bulls Apr 20 Munster 1.90 6 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 20 Scarlets -9.80 7 Leinster vs. Ulster Apr 20 Leinster 16.10 8 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 20 Glasgow -13.80

 

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