Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 12.71 8.76 3.90 Toulon 6.83 5.32 1.50 Bordeaux Begles 5.89 3.96 1.90 Montpellier 1.35 -0.96 2.30 Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30 Stade Rochelais 0.67 4.85 -4.20 Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.09 0.80 Lyon 0.46 -0.18 0.60 Bayonne 0.37 -1.69 2.10 Racing 92 0.12 2.75 -2.60 Section Paloise -0.58 1.38 -2.00 Stade Francais -1.50 1.86 -3.40 USA Perpignan -3.92 -0.66 -3.30 Vannes -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 28 – 14 5.30 TRUE 2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 28 – 26 -0.10 FALSE 3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 33 – 19 5.20 TRUE 4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 38 – 32 9.00 TRUE 5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 55 – 10 16.30 TRUE 6 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 20 – 20 2.70 FALSE 7 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 36 – 31 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Apr 20 Castres Olympique 14.30 2 Lyon vs. Montpellier Apr 20 Lyon 7.00 3 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 20 Section Paloise 0.50 4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 20 Stade Toulousain -7.10 5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Apr 20 Stade Rochelais 6.10 6 Toulon vs. Clermont Apr 20 Toulon 13.20 7 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Apr 20 USA Perpignan 2.30

 

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