Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80 Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50 Hurricanes 9.26 10.97 -1.70 Crusaders 9.13 8.99 0.10 Brumbies 4.70 6.19 -1.50 Reds 1.67 1.35 0.30 Highlanders -1.80 -2.50 0.70 Western Force -5.40 -6.41 1.00 Waratahs -5.43 -5.17 -0.30 Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60 Moana Pasifika -8.34 -11.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 57 – 12 16.70 TRUE 2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 34 – 27 11.10 TRUE 3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 29 – 45 23.60 FALSE 4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 28 – 24 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 04 Chiefs 14.30 2 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs Apr 05 Moana Pasifika 1.10 3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Apr 05 Crusaders -12.50 4 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Blues 6.40 5 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 05 Western Force 0.40

 

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