Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 13.73 5.55 8.20 Sale Sharks 4.22 4.73 -0.50 Leicester Tigers 4.03 3.27 0.80 Gloucester 3.42 -9.04 12.50 Bristol 3.07 9.58 -6.50 Northampton Saints 2.23 7.50 -5.30 Harlequins 1.63 -2.73 4.40 Saracens 1.51 9.68 -8.20 Exeter Chiefs -4.48 1.23 -5.70 Newcastle Falcons -18.58 -19.02 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 27 – 24 9.90 TRUE 2 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 47 – 28 18.50 TRUE 3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 17 – 15 25.30 TRUE 4 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 53 – 28 2.30 TRUE 5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 31 22 – 29 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 Northampton Saints -14.30 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 20 Bath -11.70 3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 20 Harlequins 3.90 4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 20 Saracens 4.60 5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Bristol 5.50

 

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