NRL Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 9.51 9.29 0.20 Panthers 7.20 8.50 -1.30 Sharks 5.16 5.10 0.10 Roosters 4.38 7.44 -3.10 Sea Eagles 4.11 2.97 1.10 Bulldogs 2.04 0.07 2.00 Cowboys 1.63 4.11 -2.50 Broncos 0.23 -1.82 2.00 Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80 Warriors -1.24 -1.68 0.40 Raiders -3.19 -3.61 0.40 Rabbitohs -3.28 -4.35 1.10 Titans -3.63 -5.50 1.90 Dolphins -3.75 -1.96 -1.80 Dragons -4.34 -4.55 0.20 Eels -5.77 -3.02 -2.80 Wests Tigers -8.17 -10.97 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 28 – 18 -9.20 FALSE 2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 12 – 30 13.50 FALSE 3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 12 – 20 -3.40 TRUE 4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 14 – 8 -12.50 FALSE 5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 30 – 20 7.40 TRUE 6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 6 – 20 8.00 FALSE 7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 26 – 12 12.70 TRUE 8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 24 – 26 -3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 03 Sharks -5.30 2 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 04 Panthers 8.60 3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 04 Roosters -4.70 4 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 05 Eels 1.60 5 Titans vs. Dolphins Apr 05 Titans 3.10 6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Broncos 11.40 7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 06 Storm -2.40 8 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 06 Bulldogs 5.90

 

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