Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 11.79 11.43 0.40 Blues 11.77 14.92 -3.10 Hurricanes 9.63 10.97 -1.30 Crusaders 9.45 8.99 0.50 Brumbies 4.70 6.19 -1.50 Reds 1.83 1.35 0.50 Highlanders -2.19 -2.50 0.30 Western Force -5.01 -6.41 1.40 Waratahs -6.07 -5.17 -0.90 Fijian Drua -7.68 -7.98 0.30 Moana Pasifika -7.70 -11.25 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 04 27 – 15 14.30 TRUE 2 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs Apr 05 45 – 28 1.10 TRUE 3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Apr 05 14 – 31 -12.50 TRUE 4 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 19 – 18 6.40 TRUE 5 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 05 29 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Hurricanes 3.70 2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 11 Chiefs -13.90 3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 Blues 23.00 4 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 12 Highlanders 9.50 5 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 12 Reds 0.60

 

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