AFL Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30 Brisbane Lions 18.34 22.65 -4.30 Geelong Cats 17.09 15.04 2.10 Collingwood 13.76 5.39 8.40 Western Bulldogs 12.46 18.20 -5.70 GWS Giants 11.53 9.08 2.40 Sydney Swans 11.07 12.60 -1.50 Adelaide Crows 9.10 2.69 6.40 St Kilda Saints 4.51 0.89 3.60 Fremantle Dockers 2.66 5.99 -3.30 Carlton Blues 1.92 5.01 -3.10 Gold Coast Suns 1.74 -6.41 8.20 Port Adelaide Power 1.29 7.63 -6.30 Melbourne Demons -10.73 -0.21 -10.50 Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90 North Melbourne -30.41 -37.08 6.70 Richmond Tigers -32.32 -31.00 -1.30 West Coast Eagles -37.53 -34.67 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 63 – 46 10.20 TRUE 2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 85 – 46 38.80 TRUE 3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 91 – 90 4.50 TRUE 4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 90 – 118 -41.90 TRUE 5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 52 – 117 -25.00 TRUE 6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 132 – 51 56.40 TRUE 7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 72 – 89 12.00 FALSE 8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 97 – 81 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Apr 10 Adelaide Crows 3.00 2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Apr 11 Collingwood 2.70 3 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 12 Gold Coast Suns -32.10 4 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 Carlton Blues 39.50 5 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 12 Brisbane Lions -5.90 6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 Melbourne Demons 0.40 7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 Fremantle Dockers -35.00 8 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Apr 13 GWS Giants -7.00 9 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 Hawthorn Hawks -11.90

 

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