AFL Predictions for Week 7

 

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Brisbane Lions 19.38 22.65 -3.30 Hawthorn Hawks 18.64 21.95 -3.30 Collingwood 15.48 5.39 10.10 Geelong Cats 14.44 15.04 -0.60 GWS Giants 12.62 9.08 3.50 Sydney Swans 11.35 12.60 -1.30 Western Bulldogs 10.39 18.20 -7.80 Adelaide Crows 10.20 2.69 7.50 Fremantle Dockers 5.80 5.99 -0.20 St Kilda Saints 3.48 0.89 2.60 Port Adelaide Power 3.19 7.63 -4.40 Carlton Blues 0.97 5.01 -4.00 Gold Coast Suns 0.24 -6.41 6.70 Essendon Bombers -8.44 -10.15 1.70 Melbourne Demons -8.49 -0.21 -8.30 North Melbourne -31.73 -37.08 5.40 Richmond Tigers -33.70 -31.00 -2.70 West Coast Eagles -36.21 -34.67 -1.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Apr 10 100 – 119 11.10 FALSE 2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Apr 11 109 – 78 -0.40 FALSE 3 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 12 89 – 141 -28.40 TRUE 4 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 121 – 50 31.80 TRUE 5 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 12 97 – 118 -6.70 TRUE 6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 57 – 96 6.10 FALSE 7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 47 – 108 -35.80 TRUE 8 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Apr 13 82 – 110 -5.80 TRUE 9 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 121 – 91 -10.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Apr 17 Brisbane Lions 14.90 2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Apr 18 Carlton Blues -32.70 3 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 18 Essendon Bombers -16.80 4 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 19 Fremantle Dockers -3.30 5 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Apr 19 Adelaide Crows 8.60 6 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 19 Gold Coast Suns -22.90 7 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 Sydney Swans 19.20 8 Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 20 Western Bulldogs 6.90 9 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 Hawthorn Hawks -15.20 The post AFL Predictions for Week 7 first appeared on Stats Chat.