Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Blues 11.50 14.92 -3.40 Chiefs 10.99 11.43 -0.40 Crusaders 9.91 8.99 0.90 Hurricanes 9.17 10.97 -1.80 Brumbies 5.27 6.19 -0.90 Reds 1.27 1.35 -0.10 Highlanders -1.63 -2.50 0.90 Western Force -5.01 -6.41 1.40 Waratahs -5.27 -5.17 -0.10 Moana Pasifika -7.42 -11.25 3.80 Fijian Drua -8.24 -7.98 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 24 – 31 3.70 FALSE 2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 11 21 – 14 -13.90 FALSE 3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 36 – 17 23.00 TRUE 4 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 12 43 – 20 9.50 TRUE 5 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 12 26 – 39 0.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies Apr 18 Brumbies -8.70 2 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 18 Crusaders 1.90 3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 19 Fijian Drua 0.50 4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Chiefs 16.10 5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -10.20

 

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