NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 11.06 9.29 1.80 Panthers 5.57 8.50 -2.90 Sharks 4.80 5.10 -0.30 Roosters 4.35 7.44 -3.10 Sea Eagles 3.06 2.97 0.10 Bulldogs 2.70 0.07 2.60 Cowboys 2.57 4.11 -1.50 Broncos 0.25 -1.82 2.10 Raiders -1.34 -3.61 2.30 Dolphins -1.54 -1.96 0.40 Warriors -1.85 -1.68 -0.20 Knights -2.64 -0.05 -2.60 Rabbitohs -3.09 -4.35 1.30 Dragons -3.47 -4.55 1.10 Titans -5.64 -5.50 -0.10 Eels -7.19 -3.02 -4.20 Wests Tigers -7.61 -10.97 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Dolphins vs. Panthers Apr 10 30 – 12 -6.20 FALSE 2 Dragons vs. Titans Apr 11 38 – 16 3.50 TRUE 3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 11 16 – 26 -0.10 TRUE 4 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 12 24 – 18 4.50 TRUE 5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 12 16 – 24 -2.00 TRUE 6 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 12 12 – 50 -3.10 TRUE 7 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 13 42 – 14 15.20 TRUE 8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 13 4 – 20 10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Apr 17 Sea Eagles 9.50 2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 18 Bulldogs 5.80 3 Dolphins vs. Storm Apr 18 Storm -9.60 4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 19 Warriors 1.40 5 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 19 Roosters 1.80 6 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 20 Raiders -1.30 7 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 20 Sharks -4.40 8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 21 Eels -0.40

 

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