Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 12.76 5.55 7.20 Leicester Tigers 6.28 3.27 3.00 Sale Sharks 6.01 4.73 1.30 Saracens 3.25 9.68 -6.40 Gloucester 1.68 -9.04 10.70 Northampton Saints 0.90 7.50 -6.60 Bristol 0.81 9.58 -8.80 Harlequins -0.16 -2.73 2.60 Exeter Chiefs -3.51 1.23 -4.70 Newcastle Falcons -17.25 -19.02 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 34 – 35 -14.30 TRUE 2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 20 24 – 26 -11.70 TRUE 3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 20 29 – 43 3.90 FALSE 4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 20 36 – 14 4.60 TRUE 5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 19 – 36 5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 26 Sale Sharks 9.30 2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 Bath 36.50 3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 12.90 4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 27 Northampton Saints 6.60 5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 Gloucester 11.70

 

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