Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 11.76 11.43 0.30 Blues 11.42 14.92 -3.50 Crusaders 9.99 8.99 1.00 Hurricanes 8.72 10.97 -2.30 Brumbies 5.89 6.19 -0.30 Reds 1.27 1.35 -0.10 Highlanders -2.39 -2.50 0.10 Western Force -4.56 -6.41 1.90 Waratahs -5.83 -5.17 -0.70 Fijian Drua -7.68 -7.98 0.30 Moana Pasifika -8.04 -11.25 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies Apr 18 0 – 24 -8.70 TRUE 2 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 18 25 – 22 1.90 TRUE 3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 19 28 – 14 0.50 TRUE 4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Apr 19 46 – 10 16.10 TRUE 5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 17 – 17 -10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Chiefs vs. Western Force Apr 25 Chiefs 20.30 2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 25 Blues -6.20 3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 Moana Pasifika 3.60 4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Apr 26 Crusaders -8.90 5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 Brumbies 1.20

 

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