NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 9.86 9.29 0.60 Panthers 6.78 8.50 -1.70 Sharks 5.52 5.10 0.40 Bulldogs 3.79 0.07 3.70 Roosters 3.14 7.44 -4.30 Cowboys 2.57 4.11 -1.50 Sea Eagles 2.49 2.97 -0.50 Broncos 0.21 -1.82 2.00 Dolphins -0.34 -1.96 1.60 Raiders -0.88 -3.61 2.70 Warriors -1.80 -1.68 -0.10 Dragons -2.91 -4.55 1.60 Knights -3.36 -0.05 -3.30 Rabbitohs -4.18 -4.35 0.20 Titans -6.09 -5.50 -0.60 Eels -6.47 -3.02 -3.50 Wests Tigers -8.33 -10.97 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Apr 17 18 – 20 9.50 FALSE 2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 18 32 – 0 5.80 TRUE 3 Dolphins vs. Storm Apr 18 42 – 22 -9.60 FALSE 4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 19 20 – 18 1.40 TRUE 5 Roosters vs. Panthers Apr 19 12 – 40 1.80 FALSE 6 Titans vs. Raiders Apr 20 20 – 30 -1.30 TRUE 7 Knights vs. Sharks Apr 20 14 – 34 -4.40 TRUE 8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 21 22 – 38 -0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 Bulldogs -0.60 2 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 9.10 3 Warriors vs. Knights Apr 25 Warriors 5.10 4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 Storm 17.00 5 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 26 Cowboys 11.70 6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 26 Panthers 7.30 7 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 27 Raiders 2.50 8 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 27 Sharks -10.80

 

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