Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 12.71 5.55 7.20 Leicester Tigers 8.29 3.27 5.00 Sale Sharks 6.88 4.73 2.20 Gloucester 6.71 -9.04 15.70 Saracens 2.37 9.68 -7.30 Northampton Saints 1.94 7.50 -5.60 Bristol -0.23 9.58 -9.80 Harlequins -2.17 -2.73 0.60 Exeter Chiefs -8.54 1.23 -9.80 Newcastle Falcons -17.20 -19.02 1.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 26 25 – 7 9.30 TRUE 2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 55 – 19 36.50 TRUE 3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Apr 27 40 – 7 12.90 TRUE 4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 27 48 – 31 6.60 TRUE 5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 79 – 17 11.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks May 10 Leicester Tigers 7.90 2 Bristol vs. Bath May 11 Bath -6.40 3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 11 Gloucester -2.40 4 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons May 11 Saracens 26.10 5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 12 Northampton Saints -4.00 The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16 first appeared on Stats Chat.