United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 12.24 12.09 0.10 Bulls 10.33 8.83 1.50 Glasgow 8.00 9.39 -1.40 Stormers 6.51 6.75 -0.20 Munster 4.01 9.28 -5.30 Sharks 2.50 -2.94 5.40 Lions 0.85 6.73 -5.90 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Edinburgh 0.76 0.09 0.70 Connacht -1.65 -0.76 -0.90 Scarlets -1.76 -10.65 8.90 Cardiff Rugby -1.92 -2.55 0.60 Ospreys -1.93 -2.51 0.60 Ulster -2.01 2.52 -4.50 Benetton -4.95 1.02 -6.00 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -8.57 -16.17 7.60 Dragons -16.70 -15.41 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Apr 26 26 – 21 -2.00 FALSE 2 Glasgow vs. Bulls Apr 26 19 – 26 5.00 FALSE 3 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 27 26 – 7 6.10 TRUE 4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Apr 27 57 – 24 14.70 TRUE 5 Scarlets vs. Leinster Apr 27 35 – 22 -11.90 FALSE 6 Stormers vs. Benetton Apr 27 56 – 5 12.00 TRUE 7 Ulster vs. Sharks Apr 27 19 – 22 2.10 FALSE 8 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Apr 27 25 – 25 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sharks vs. Ospreys May 10 Sharks 9.90 2 Munster vs. Ulster May 10 Munster 8.50 3 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby May 11 Bulls 17.80 4 Benetton vs. Glasgow May 11 Glasgow -7.50 5 Leinster vs. Zebre May 11 Leinster 26.30 6 Stormers vs. Dragons May 11 Stormers 28.70 7 Connacht vs. Edinburgh May 11 Connacht 3.10 8 Lions vs. Scarlets May 12 Lions 8.10

 

The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17 first appeared on Stats Chat.