Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 13.57 8.76 4.80 Toulon 5.86 5.32 0.50 Bordeaux Begles 5.37 3.96 1.40 Stade Rochelais 1.22 4.85 -3.60 Clermont 1.19 0.41 0.80 Montpellier 0.93 -0.96 1.90 Racing 92 0.64 2.75 -2.10 Bayonne 0.48 -1.69 2.20 Lyon 0.47 -0.18 0.60 Castres Olympique -0.07 -0.09 0.00 Section Paloise -0.65 1.38 -2.00 Stade Francais -2.05 1.86 -3.90 USA Perpignan -3.55 -0.66 -2.90 Vannes -7.69 -10.00 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Apr 27 27 – 22 7.50 TRUE 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 27 10 – 21 13.10 FALSE 3 Clermont vs. Lyon Apr 27 39 – 31 5.30 TRUE 4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 27 19 – 13 10.50 TRUE 5 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Apr 27 52 – 6 18.20 TRUE 6 Vannes vs. Toulon Apr 27 29 – 19 -7.50 FALSE 7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Apr 28 49 – 24 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont May 11 Castres Olympique 5.60 2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise May 11 Lyon 7.40 3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 11 Racing 92 6.80 4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 11 Stade Toulousain -1.30 5 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais May 11 USA Perpignan 5.30 6 Vannes vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 Stade Rochelais -1.60 7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles May 12 Montpellier 1.20

 

The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 23 first appeared on Stats Chat.