Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 12.32 11.43 0.90 Crusaders 10.88 8.99 1.90 Blues 10.65 14.92 -4.30 Hurricanes 9.06 10.97 -1.90 Brumbies 5.55 6.19 -0.60 Reds 2.04 1.35 0.70 Highlanders -3.28 -2.50 -0.80 Western Force -5.13 -6.41 1.30 Waratahs -5.83 -5.17 -0.70 Moana Pasifika -7.42 -11.25 3.80 Fijian Drua -8.30 -7.98 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Chiefs vs. Western Force Apr 25 56 – 22 20.30 TRUE 2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 25 35 – 21 -6.20 FALSE 3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 34 – 15 3.60 TRUE 4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Apr 26 10 – 43 -8.90 TRUE 5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 29 – 35 1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Blues vs. Western Force May 02 Blues 19.80 2 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 03 Reds -6.80 3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 03 Hurricanes 0.20 4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 03 Brumbies 14.90 5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika May 04 Highlanders 7.60

 

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