NRL Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 9.39 9.29 0.10 Panthers 5.79 8.50 -2.70 Sharks 4.90 5.10 -0.20 Roosters 3.99 7.44 -3.50 Sea Eagles 3.48 2.97 0.50 Cowboys 3.46 4.11 -0.70 Bulldogs 2.76 0.07 2.70 Broncos 1.24 -1.82 3.10 Raiders -0.40 -3.61 3.20 Dolphins -0.83 -1.96 1.10 Warriors -1.34 -1.68 0.30 Rabbitohs -3.71 -4.35 0.60 Dragons -3.75 -4.55 0.80 Knights -3.82 -0.05 -3.80 Eels -6.47 -3.02 -3.50 Titans -6.99 -5.50 -1.50 Wests Tigers -7.71 -10.97 3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 42 – 18 -0.60 FALSE 2 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 46 – 18 9.10 TRUE 3 Warriors vs. Knights Apr 25 26 – 12 5.10 TRUE 4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 24 – 16 17.00 TRUE 5 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 26 50 – 18 11.70 TRUE 6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 26 10 – 26 7.30 FALSE 7 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 27 40 – 28 2.50 TRUE 8 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 27 20 – 18 -10.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Sharks vs. Eels May 02 Sharks 11.40 2 Roosters vs. Dolphins May 02 Roosters 1.80 3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights May 03 Rabbitohs 0.10 4 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 03 Cowboys -4.80 5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 03 Dragons -4.00 6 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 04 Bulldogs -9.70 7 Panthers vs. Broncos May 04 Panthers 1.50 8 Storm vs. Raiders May 04 Storm 9.80

 

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