AFL Predictions for Week 9

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Collingwood 21.15 5.39 15.80 Brisbane Lions 17.88 22.65 -4.80 Western Bulldogs 17.27 18.20 -0.90 Hawthorn Hawks 15.90 21.95 -6.10 Geelong Cats 14.66 15.04 -0.40 Adelaide Crows 10.22 2.69 7.50 GWS Giants 8.73 9.08 -0.40 Sydney Swans 6.69 12.60 -5.90 Fremantle Dockers 5.82 5.99 -0.20 Carlton Blues 5.73 5.01 0.70 Port Adelaide Power 2.29 7.63 -5.30 Gold Coast Suns 0.51 -6.41 6.90 St Kilda Saints -3.42 0.89 -4.30 Melbourne Demons -7.88 -0.21 -7.70 Essendon Bombers -11.02 -10.15 -0.90 Richmond Tigers -30.84 -31.00 0.20 North Melbourne -32.14 -37.08 4.90 West Coast Eagles -33.97 -34.67 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.3%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 24 83 – 63 23.90 TRUE 2 Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 25 107 – 66 29.40 TRUE 3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 25 85 – 67 4.40 TRUE 4 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 26 73 – 118 -4.70 TRUE 5 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Apr 26 97 – 88 51.20 TRUE 6 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 26 81 – 113 8.00 FALSE 7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Sydney Swans Apr 27 117 – 79 -0.50 FALSE 8 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Apr 27 94 – 76 -0.80 FALSE 9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 27 124 – 74 63.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 01 Essendon Bombers 21.10 2 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 02 St Kilda Saints 1.80 3 Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide Power May 03 Western Bulldogs 26.00 4 Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues May 03 Adelaide Crows 15.50 5 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats May 03 Collingwood 17.50 6 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 03 Melbourne Demons -15.10 7 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 Sydney Swans 2.00 8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers May 04 Hawthorn Hawks 46.70 9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 04 Brisbane Lions 21.40

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.