Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Chiefs 11.62 11.43 0.20 Crusaders 10.88 8.99 1.90 Blues 10.73 14.92 -4.20 Hurricanes 9.76 10.97 -1.20 Brumbies 5.92 6.19 -0.30 Reds 1.60 1.35 0.30 Highlanders -3.82 -2.50 -1.30 Western Force -5.21 -6.41 1.20 Waratahs -6.21 -5.17 -1.00 Moana Pasifika -6.89 -11.25 4.40 Fijian Drua -7.87 -7.98 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.5%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Blues vs. Western Force May 02 40 – 19 19.80 TRUE 2 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 03 36 – 33 -6.80 FALSE 3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 03 35 – 17 0.20 TRUE 4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 03 40 – 17 14.90 TRUE 5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika May 04 29 – 34 7.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Fijian Drua vs. Blues May 09 Blues -14.60 2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 09 Reds -4.30 3 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 10 Crusaders 2.80 4 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 10 Brumbies -7.60

 

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