United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 15.02 12.09 2.90 Bulls 11.02 8.83 2.20 Stormers 7.31 6.75 0.60 Glasgow 5.83 9.39 -3.60 Munster 5.06 9.28 -4.20 Sharks 3.50 -2.94 6.40 Edinburgh 1.74 0.09 1.70 Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00 Scarlets -0.29 -10.65 10.40 Lions -0.62 6.73 -7.30 Cardiff Rugby -2.61 -2.55 -0.10 Connacht -2.63 -0.76 -1.90 Benetton -2.78 1.02 -3.80 Ospreys -2.93 -2.51 -0.40 Ulster -3.05 2.52 -5.60 Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00 Zebre -11.35 -16.17 4.80 Dragons -17.50 -15.41 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Sharks vs. Ospreys May 10 29 – 10 9.90 TRUE 2 Munster vs. Ulster May 10 38 – 20 8.50 TRUE 3 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby May 11 45 – 21 17.80 TRUE 4 Benetton vs. Glasgow May 11 33 – 7 -7.50 FALSE 5 Leinster vs. Zebre May 11 76 – 5 26.30 TRUE 6 Stormers vs. Dragons May 11 48 – 12 28.70 TRUE 7 Connacht vs. Edinburgh May 11 21 – 31 3.10 FALSE 8 Lions vs. Scarlets May 12 19 – 32 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 17 Stormers 15.40 2 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 17 Edinburgh 10.30 3 Munster vs. Benetton May 17 Munster 13.30 4 Bulls vs. Dragons May 18 Bulls 34.00 5 Lions vs. Ospreys May 18 Lions 7.80 6 Zebre vs. Connacht May 18 Connacht -3.20 7 Sharks vs. Scarlets May 18 Sharks 9.30 8 Leinster vs. Glasgow May 18 Leinster 14.70

 

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