Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 14.64 8.76 5.90 Toulon 4.86 5.32 -0.50 Bordeaux Begles 4.74 3.96 0.80 Montpellier 1.50 -0.96 2.50 Clermont 1.18 0.41 0.80 Stade Rochelais 1.16 4.85 -3.70 Bayonne 0.84 -1.69 2.50 Racing 92 0.25 2.75 -2.50 Lyon 0.09 -0.18 0.30 Castres Olympique -0.06 -0.09 0.00 Section Paloise -0.19 1.38 -1.60 Stade Francais -1.88 1.86 -3.70 USA Perpignan -3.72 -0.66 -3.10 Vannes -7.70 -10.00 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 120 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Lyon vs. Section Paloise May 11 27 – 29 7.40 FALSE 2 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 11 24 – 24 6.80 FALSE 3 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 11 16 – 50 -1.30 TRUE 4 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais May 11 20 – 18 5.30 TRUE 5 Vannes vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 29 – 30 -1.60 TRUE 6 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles May 12 46 – 27 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Bayonne vs. Vannes May 18 Bayonne 15.00 2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique May 18 Bordeaux Begles 12.10 3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 18 Clermont 10.10 4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon May 18 Section Paloise 2.90 5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 18 Stade Francais 4.00 6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 May 18 Stade Toulousain 20.00 7 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier May 19 Stade Rochelais 6.30

 

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