Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 9.86 5.55 4.30 Leicester Tigers 8.50 3.27 5.20 Sale Sharks 6.67 4.73 1.90 Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60 Saracens 4.47 9.68 -5.20 Bristol 2.61 9.58 -7.00 Harlequins -0.03 -2.73 2.70 Northampton Saints -1.26 7.50 -8.80 Exeter Chiefs -5.35 1.23 -6.60 Newcastle Falcons -19.29 -19.02 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks May 10 44 – 34 7.90 TRUE 2 Bristol vs. Bath May 11 36 – 14 -6.40 FALSE 3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 11 38 – 19 -2.40 FALSE 4 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons May 11 75 – 28 26.10 TRUE 5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 12 42 – 14 -4.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester May 17 Gloucester -17.40 2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol May 17 Sale Sharks 10.60 3 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 Bath 7.90 4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens May 18 Northampton Saints 0.80 5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Harlequins 11.80

 

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