AFL Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Collingwood 20.47 5.39 15.10 Western Bulldogs 19.21 18.20 1.00 Hawthorn Hawks 18.66 21.95 -3.30 Brisbane Lions 14.77 22.65 -7.90 Geelong Cats 14.47 15.04 -0.60 Adelaide Crows 12.04 2.69 9.30 GWS Giants 9.49 9.08 0.40 Sydney Swans 6.35 12.60 -6.30 Carlton Blues 3.75 5.01 -1.30 Gold Coast Suns 3.22 -6.41 9.60 Fremantle Dockers 1.08 5.99 -4.90 St Kilda Saints -0.60 0.89 -1.50 Port Adelaide Power -0.62 7.63 -8.30 Melbourne Demons -7.88 -0.21 -7.70 Essendon Bombers -11.09 -10.15 -0.90 North Melbourne -28.14 -37.08 8.90 Richmond Tigers -33.25 -31.00 -2.20 West Coast Eagles -34.30 -34.67 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%. Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct 1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood May 08 83 – 97 -6.60 TRUE 2 St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues May 09 62 – 77 -2.30 TRUE 3 Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 10 56 – 91 -23.90 TRUE 4 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 71 – 63 -9.10 FALSE 5 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs May 10 106 – 96 -20.40 FALSE 6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows May 10 84 – 89 -15.10 TRUE 7 Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles May 11 81 – 79 14.00 TRUE 8 Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants May 11 101 – 105 19.50 FALSE 9 North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions May 11 71 – 71 -37.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction 1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 15 Hawthorn Hawks -15.40 2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 16 Sydney Swans 13.60 3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 17 Collingwood 19.40 4 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 GWS Giants 19.40 5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats May 17 Geelong Cats -4.10 6 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers May 17 Western Bulldogs 30.30 7 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne May 18 North Melbourne -5.10 8 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons May 18 Brisbane Lions 33.70 9 West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints May 18 St Kilda Saints -22.70

 

The post AFL Predictions for Week 11 first appeared on Stats Chat.